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What the Experts See For 2024

2024

THE TREND

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” Progress without purpose is the path to destruction.”
Arthur C. Clarke, Childhood’s End, 1953

Why consider one or two forecasters when you can access the combined thinking of over 700?

This issue of “The Trend” is looking at 25 broad categories of interest compiled by Visual Capitalist, one of my favorite sites.

Visual Capitalist surveyed over 700 prognosticators from Blackrock to Barrons, Eurasia Group to the Economist; Coinbase to Cushman and hundreds more.

The purpose was to aggregate the responses and form a consensus in order to
determine the 25 most common predictions for 2024.

In many cases I would not call them predictions so much as concerns that should be taken into consideration when making investment, business or even personal decisions.

The colored circles in each of the 25 categories below represent a range of consensus. The higher the density or quantity of circles, the higher or lesser degree of consensus.

As you can see from the first group, there is a high degree of consensus that “there will be an AI deep fake election scandal”.

There are many elections taking place around the globe in 2024 in addition to the U.S. so that scandal, should it occur, could happen in any number of other countries.

The consensus around AI lawsuits and regulations is very high.

You can also see that while Robotic workers is “forecasted” it does not have a high general consensus.

From an investors point of view, how will TikTok’s significant growth in ecommerce effect Amazon and other ecommerce businesses?

In our second group below,  we see that war and geopolitical risk are high on the minds of the forecasters.

Investors will consider stocks of fertilizer and food producers like ADM and defensive/offensive weapons providers such as Raytheon (RTX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT).

Interest rate cuts would be good for large real estate community builders like Pulte (PHM  ), D.R. Horton (DHI) or Lennar (LEN).

The manufacturing shift, including semiconductors, from China back to the U.S. or to other countries in Asia Pac is something we have covered in previous issues of The Trend.

It appears the consensus of the 700 believes it will increase.

India’s GDP growth vs. China is important as western companies look to expand beyond China in Asia.

Stocks of Indian companies can be bought in the US via ADRs, for example, Witpro, Ltd. (WIT), WNS Holdings (WNS) or HDFC Bank (HDB).

As shippers are forced to take the long route around Africa to avoid delays or takeovers in the Red Sea, insurance rates are rising.

Not good for the shippers and the supply chain but it might be a plus for insurance companies as long as claims remain low or reasonable.

Beneficiaries of AI’s continued growth, in spite of regulation and law suits, are likely to IBM (IBM) due to its experience developing Watson and associated consulting services and companies like Salesforce (CRM) with huge data bases of B2B information ready to be mined.

You can see some of the sources in the Visual Capitalist infographic displayed in the dark space above.

The weightings in this study may change over the course of the year, but it is a good blueprint for thinking about where the opportunities may be, associated risk and how to manage your portfolio.

Use the Trending Stocks Trade Risk Calculator to assist in sizing your portfolio.

Remember: Ride Your Winners, Cut Your Losses.

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